Cook can emulate Broad heroics
Marcus Trescothick's headline-making return from Australia last week has dramatically improved England's chances of retaining the Ashes.
Trescothick's batting has been one of the key factors behind England's resurgence in Test cricket, but to succeed in Australia you have to be in great condition physically and emotionally. Which is clearly not the case with the Somerset opener right now.
In his absence, England need not face the difficult decision of which batsman to drop from Ian Bell, Paul Collingwood and Alastair Cook.
That is good news because those three have earned their place in the team through runs scored in the last 12 months, not mere reputation.
And for England to mount a successful campaign, one of those less experienced batsmen must have an outstanding series.
The situation bears comparison with the last time England won in Australia, in 1986/87.
Then the experienced trio of Mike Gatting, David Gower and Ian Botham made runs when the pressure was on.
But it was the emergence of left-handed opener Chris Broad that ultimately proved the difference between the sides.
England are expected to promote Alastair Cook to open alongside Andrew Strauss for the first Test, which starts late on Wednesday night.
This affords Cook the opportunity to thrive, as Broad did, in the environment that suits him most.
Cook has excelled against seam and generally coped well with spin since making his debut in India last March.
But in the summer he was twice dismissed by Sri Lanka's Muttiah Muralitharan, and Shane Warne would be likely to cause him even greater problems.
As an opener, however, Cook should see less of Warne. And when the great Australian leg-spinner comes into the attack, Cook should already be playing with confidence and runs under his belt.
Former Test captain Ray Illingworth, who masterminded England's 1970/71 Ashes victory in Australia, believes Cook's inexperience against top-class spin bowling might have been his downfall at number three.
"Cook looks pretty good against seam bowling, but he might struggle against the spinners a bit, particularly if Australia bat first and get a bit of rough outside his off stump," Illingworth told me before Trescothick 's departure.
Despite being eight years younger than Broad was in 1986/87, 21-year-old Cook is arguably better prepared for an Ashes series Down Under.
He has hit 761 runs in 16 Test innings, at an average of almost 55, with three hundreds.
Broad had not played Test cricket since a handful of unspectacular appearances two years earlier and had yet to make a Test hundreds.
Still, he became one of England's key performers, hitting centuries in three consecutive Tests.
If Cook can do something similar, England will enjoy a very special winter.
* The blog is now also going to be appearing at www.getreading.co.uk
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